In Week 10 of college football, teams are starting to separate themselves from their peers and the rankings are showing that. Nobody’s top 25 rankings looked anything like what we have now in week 10. After nine weeks of college football no team looks unstoppable or unbeatable including the three remaining undefeated teams: Florida State, Mississippi State, and Marshall.

Of the top 5 teams, three are from the SEC after Ole Miss lost to LSU 10-7. Mississippi State will play Alabama and Auburn who are number three and four in the AP poll which should result in only one SEC team in the top 5. Florida State has had some sloppy performances and is hanging on to an undefeated season thanks to a pass interference call against Notre Dame who was also that close to being undefeated at 7-0.

Before I jump into my prediction for the top 4 teams, let me first analyze and dissect the top four in the AP preseason poll:

1. Florida State

After an undefeated 14-0 season ending in a 34-31 win over Auburn in the BCS title game, Florida State was a popular number one pick for the 2014 season. As this season has progressed though, it has become clear that this Florida State team is not as talented as the 2013 team and has struggled along through their season.

A six point season opener victory an average Oklahoma State team, a 23-17 win over Clemson in overtime, and a near loss to Notre Dame just last week all show a vulnerable Florida State team that can be beat.

This team could easily be 5-2 instead of 7-0 and probably should be. The rest of their schedule is pretty weak with the toughest opponent remaining being a 6-2 Louisville squad. I expect Florida State to stay at number 2 for the rest of the season thanks to an easy schedule.

2. Alabama

Alabama’s 2013 season ended in a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl which helped prop up Oklahoma but did little to influence Alabama’s position in the preseason. The Tide’s campaign of 2014 got off to a rocky start against a West Virginia team that just beat Baylor 41-27 and has proved to be a legitimate Big-12 contender. Alabama won that game 33-23 but has lost to Ole Miss, now number 10 and 7-1,  23-17 in a loss that hasn’t hurt Alabama as much as it should.

Alabama still needs to play LSU, Mississippi State, and Auburn only having to leave home for LSU. The schedule is daunting and will result in the SEC eating itself alive by beating each other up and pushing ranked teams lower.

3. Oregon

Oregon’s 2014 season started off in a dominant fashion with the biggest win in head coach Mark Helfrich’s career against number 7 Michigan State, who beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl. The Ducks showed the world in that game that they can beat a big, physical, running team. Key linemen have come back on the depth chart after being injured returning the O-line to its preseason elite status.

Oregon has been thrown back into the top five after beating Cal for the sixth straight year and is now sitting at 5 in prime position for the 4 team playoff. To do that though Oregon must win the rest of its schedule which includes Stanford , Utah, and Oregon State. If Oregon wins the rest of its schedule and the Pac-12 Championship game, they will be in the playoff. A tough task, but that’s what makes college football so exciting.

4. Oklahoma

2013 had a huge finish for the Sooners with a visit to the Sugar Bowl and a 45-31 win over Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide. This win produced huge preseason hype for Oklahoma with talk of a national championship and a potential number one ranking.

Well after ten weeks of college football in 2014 and those dreams are gone. History. You can thank TCU and Kansas State for those losses that have pushed the Sooners out of playoff contention. The Sooners are now 19th and sitting on a 5-2 record, 2-2 in the Big-12. A playoff is out of the picture, especially if you consider the fact that they still have games with Baylor and Oklahoma State left on their schedule.

Now for my personal prediction of the college football playoff (if you can call it that).

1. Mississippi State

Three wins in a row over top ten opponents catapulted M-State up the rankings and thats where I think they will remain for the season, even though it won’t be anything you can call an easy task. They still need to play Alabama and Ole Miss, both of whom I think are overrated and will lose again by the end of the season.

Only one SEC team will make it to the playoff since the SEC West will all beat each other up and one of those teams will have to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship game. I think M-State will win out and beat Georgia to win the SEC. The SEC champion will be in the playoff, guaranteed.

2. Florida State

The only reason I am putting Florida State here is not because I think they are the number two team in the nation, but because their remaining schedule is weak and it should be easy for them to win out. Their toughest opponent left is a game at Louisville and the next toughest being Miami. Hopefully the playoff committee will see the lack of strength of schedule and not rank them so high, especially when you consider all their come-from-behind victories this season.

I think Florida State will win out the rest of their schedule and the ACC Championship game and securing a spot in the playoff.

3. Oregon

Oregon has been the most dominant team in the Pac-12 so far in 2014 and I think that trend will continue. The playoff committee is said to be considering injuries when ranking teams which gives Oregon an advantage when their loss to Arizona is considered. That loss is looking better and better as Arizona keeps winning and is 6-1.

The toughest games remaining for Oregon are home with Stanford and down in Salt Lake City against Utah, both of which are very winnable games if the right Oregon team shows up. I think Oregon will win out and have a rematch with Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship game that they will walk away from 12-1 and straight into the playoff. A one-loss Pac-12 champion will make it into the playoff (as long as they’re ranked in the top 10) but a two-loss champion will be left out in the rain.

4. Michigan State

When I look over the rest of Michigan State’s schedule, the only game that remotely jumps out as less than a 14 point win is Ohio State, which is at home. I don’t see the Spartans losing another game on their schedule. There is simply no one in the Big Ten left who can challenge them. That also means there are no more statement wins left for Michigan State. Their best chance to make their case for the playoff was against Oregon where they lost 46-27 in their worst loss in 4 years.

It will be interesting to see how the playoff committee sees Michigan State and whether they will put them in the playoff after considering their loss to Oregon. A one-loss Big Ten champion will get the nod over a two-loss Big 12 champion but not a one-loss Big 12 champ.

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