1 in 9.2 quintillion.

Those are the odds of a perfect March Madness bracket. If you casually follow college basketball, your odds improve to a whopping 120 billion to one. 

Despite these incredible odds, thousands of people fill out their brackets each year, hoping to win money and gain bragging rights among their friends. Even if you’re virtually guaranteed to get a pick wrong at some point, a little bit of basketball knowledge can go a long way.

If you’ve entered a bracket pool without knowing anything about college basketball, have no fear — I’ve already done the research for you. Here are my four biggest tips to pick a winning bracket.

1.Check KenPom.

Since 2002, analytics expert Ken Pomeroy has published and consistently updated his rankings of every college basketball team in the country, which has revolutionized college basketball’s analytics movement thanks to its tempo-based formula. Fortunately for you and me, this monumental body of work is available for free online at kenpom.com.

There are a lot of intimidating numbers on the screen, most of which you can largely ignore. All you really need to pay attention to is who he has ranked highly, because KenPom’s algorithm is almost always correct about who will succeed in March. Since Pomeroy first began publishing his rankings, 50% of his top-ranked teams have won it all, with all but three of the 22 national champions since the founding of his website ranked in his top five.

KenPom also has a penchant for calling deep Cinderella runs. For example, in 2021, 11-seed UCLA was ranked 13th by KenPom, ahead of every three and four seed in the tournament. The Bruins repaid this bold ranking by going from the First Four to the Final Four, coming within a few seconds of a national championship appearance. KenPom also called UConn’s dominant 2023 tournament run, placing the Huskies atop the rankings despite their standing as a four-seed. If there’s an outlier in his top 20, it’s probably for good reason.

Whether you’re looking for a surefire championship pick or a sneaky upset, KenPom will have you covered.

2. Be wary of teams with too much tempo.

First of all, what exactly is “tempo,” and how is it quantified? 

Tempo is statistically defined by the number of possessions a team has per game. Faster teams will have the ball more often, and generally take more shots in transition than teams that play at an average pace. Up-tempo basketball also tends to be more aesthetically pleasing, as it generates lots of dunks, three-point attempts, and long scoring runs.

However, an up-tempo attack also offers a variety of ways for teams to get exposed. For starters, teams with slow offenses can slow the game’s overall tempo, especially if they’re making their shots. By reducing the number of possessions and transition opportunities, you can take a fast team out of their comfort zone, forcing them to run a half-court offense. 

Teams that excel at on-ball defensive pressure also tend to find success against up-tempo attacks, as they can both slow the game down and force turnovers in transition. San Diego State’s Sweet Sixteen upset over top-seeded Alabama last season was the perfect example — by pressuring Alabama’s guards and slowing down the pace, the Aztecs controlled the flow of the game and punched their ticket to the Elite Eight.

It’s tempting to pick fast teams because they play fun basketball, but if you’re going to pick an uptempo offense to go deep, you have to make sure they can succeed in other aspects of the game. For example, despite North Carolina’s 42nd-ranked pace of play, I like their chances in March because of their stellar rebounding and defensive efficiency. 

I’m especially wary of Arizona this season, as they’ve been upset in back-to-back years running the exact same up-tempo offense that they currently feature. While I think this Wildcats squad is capable of a Final Four run, they still feature the same risks that doomed them in previous tournaments. I would also steer clear of Alabama  — despite their blinding pace and top-ranked offense, the Crimson Tide can’t play a lick of defense. 

3. Make sure your picks have steady guards.

Picture this: you’re watching from the stands, and your team just fell behind against an inferior opponent. You haven’t scored in what feels like forever, you’re turning the ball over every other possession, and every single one of your players has a “deer-in-the-headlights” look on their faces. 

This is the scenario that confronted Purdue last season against 16th-seeded Fairleigh Dickinson. Unfortunately, the Boilermakers were starting true freshman guards — Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer — who appeared completely overwhelmed by the moment they were tasked with meeting. Over and over, they were unable to break FDU’s press, turning the ball over constantly and bricking the open looks they were given. With four seconds left, Smith airballed the potential game-tying three, giving Purdue the dubious honor of being the second one-seed in tournament history to lose in the first round.

Purdue’s shocking loss was perhaps the most brutal example of a fact that has been proven time and time again: to win in March, you need experienced guards. College basketball is a sport that relies on young adults to navigate some of the most pressure-packed situations imaginable, and point guards are responsible for almost every decision a team makes on offense. This means that experienced guards are at a premium, giving a huge advantage to teams with superstar ballhandlers.

However, unlike last season, most of the top seeds are blessed with excellent guard play. The absolute cream of the crop (in my opinion) is North Carolina’s RJ Davis, a 6’0” speedster who is legitimately unstoppable when he’s hot and unshakable late in games. Houston’s Jamal Shead and UConn’s Tristen Newton also stand out as two guards who can fill just about any role imaginable. Even Purdue has turned their guard play into a strength, with Braden Smith maturing into a genuine floor general that can take the pressure off Zach Edey when needed.

A few lower seeds also feature elite guards who are capable of carrying their team to an upset bid by themselves. Northwestern’s Boo Buie is particularly dangerous, and he powered the Wildcats to an overtime upset against Purdue with 31 points and 9 assists in December. Colorado’s KJ Simpson and Drake’s Tucker DeVries also stand out as dangerous scoring guards. If any of these three get hot during March, it could spell doom for a top seed.

However, there are still some top seeds with suspect guards. Auburn stands out as a prime example, as true freshman Aden Holloway has had a nightmarish season efficiency-wise. Arizona is another example — superstar point guard Caleb Love has been ice-cold recently, shooting a dreadful 20% from the field over the Wildcats’ past three games. Arizona struggled mightily without his usual scoring output, going 1-2 in these games. This makes both teams increasingly untrustworthy as the tournament progresses.

4. Pay attention to away records.

If there’s one thing that has become apparent over the course of the 2024 season, it’s the prevalence of home-court advantage. Simply put, “good” teams can’t win on the road. Top-10 teams have a lukewarm 65.1% winning percentage away from home, and multiple other preseason contenders have had it even worse. Now more than ever, it’s crucial to examine which teams can succeed away from their home environment.

Houston particularly stands out in this regard, with a 7-3 away record in Big 12 play. It should be noted that the Big 12 currently has five teams in the top 25, so the Cougars’ success away from home is infinitely more impressive in such a difficult conference. Tennessee has also impressed with eight road wins, three of which have come against ranked opponents. Purdue, St. Mary’s, and North Carolina also stand out as squads who have found success on the road, albeit in significantly easier conferences.

Away records are perhaps most useful for predicting upsets, as every March Madness game is played at a neutral site, calling into question the ability of certain teams to win in these environments. Kansas is a popular upset pick due to their paltry 3-6 road record, which includes ugly losses like a 29-point shellacking at unranked Texas Tech and an upset at the hands of Big 12 bottom-feeder UCF. Some other tournament teams with mediocre road records include Baylor, BYU, Nebraska, San Diego State, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida.

Contenders: These five teams have the talent, experience, and seeding necessary to bring home a national title on April 8.

Potential Frauds: Whether it’s a bad road record, questionable guard play, or a lack of depth, these five teams simply can’t be trusted. 

Early Upsets: Here are five first-round matchups where I believe the underdog will come out on top.

Fill out a bracket before the tournament starts on Wednesday with ESPN’s Tournament Challenge or March Madness Live.